Project 2.2: Tropical Cyclones in the North West (John McBride and Hamish Ramsay)
- Write and submit a research paper on the climatology and interannual variability of tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean that affect the Western Australian coastline.
- Develop a statistical forecast model for tropical cyclone activity along the Western Australian coastline (2-week lead time)
Figure 2.2.1: The spatial pattern of correlation between sea surface temperature (SST), averaged over September to November, and the number of tropical cyclones (TCs) from November-April in the Western Australian main development region (MDR), using data from 1969 to 2007. Warmer (cooler) than average SSTs in the central tropical Pacific during Spring - El Niño (La Niña) - results generally in suppressed (enhanced) TC development over the MDR region. The strong, positive correlation between MDR SST and the number of TCs is also attributed to changes in the tropical Pacific SST associated with El Niño and La Niña events.